NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Market Snapshot: The NGX All Share Index (ASI) edged +0.35% higher to close at 141,546.78, extending its robust Year-to-Date (YTD) gain to +37.66%. Naira liquidity and trading dynamism returned emphatically, with volume surging +145% day-over-day to 958.26M shares traded, and turnover leaping +38.62% to ?16.79B. Despite the positive index move, market breadth showed mild weakness, as decliners (35) outnumbered advancers (28), yielding a breadth ratio of 0.80x. Liquidity was heavily skewed toward institutional players, responsible for 85.64% of volumes and 93.32% of total trade value, yet retail participation increased in terms of deal count.

Key Themes & Noteworthy Patterns

• Market Breadth:
  • Breadth ratio at 0.80x highlights a defensive undertone despite index gains – signaling cautious optimism but growing selectivity. More stocks fell than rose, despite headline gains in the ASI.
  • Volume up for 65 listings; volume down for 74 – signaling divergence and suggesting isolated pockets of accumulation/distribution beneath an otherwise strong headline index.
• Top Gainers:
  • CHELLARAMS PLC (CHELLARAM): +9.77% to ?14.60 – Top gainer, multi-day momentum, robust RSI 59.93, MACD positive, 294.59% YTD surge. Repeated presence in daily and YTD leaders table suggests ongoing structural buying.
  • AUSTIN LAZ (AUSTINLAZ): +9.67% to ?2.95 – Recently triggered bullish 15DMA crossover, although RSI is neutral (51.13).
  • ARADEL HOLDINGS (ARADEL): +6.97% to ?583.00 – Significant unusual volume (+333.8% of average), major institutional flow, strong MACD bullishness (MACD 7.37 vs. Signal -4.26), and repeated showing in daily gainers and high-institution tables. Implies heightened institutional buy-in and possible trend continuation.
• Top Losers:
  • GUINEA INSURANCE (GUINEAINS): -9.70% to ?1.49 – Appears in bearish momentum and YTD loser lists; recently dipped below 15DMA, with muted RSI near neutral (54.54), but the breakdown is more technical than oversold.
  • MERISTEM VALUE ETF (MERVALUE): -9.09% – Strong negative MACD (3.04 vs. Signal -0.88), high Beta (4.95), bearish 15DMA cross, momentum reversal confirmed.
  • CORNERSTONE INSURANCE (CORNERST): -8.68%, also features in YTD loser/bearish lists; technical signals (RSI: 53.15, bearish MACD) support further caution.
• Unusual Volume:
  • ABBEY BUILDING (ABBEYBDS): +109,298% volume spike – Possible corporate action or block trade. Caution on sustainability.
  • FIDELITY BANK (FIDELITYBK): +658.5% volume – May presage a near-term breakout.
  • ARADEL: Unusual volume aligns with gainer list, confirming strong institutional interest.

Momentum Trend Insights (15DMA/50DMA, RSI, MACD Analysis)

• Overlapping Trends (YTD Gainers & Bullish Momentum):
  • CHELLARAM (CHELLARAM): Noteworthy for repeating across all tables (daily, 5-day, YTD, bullish momentum) with stable RSI (~60), positive MACD, above 15DMA and 50DMA – implies inflow-driven momentum. Momentum players: Ride trend but trail stops!
  • MULTIVERSE, ETRANZACT, GUINNESS, UNILEVER: Strong YTD returns, RSI climbing, all above 50, but none are yet "overbought" (RSI <70). Momentum could extend, monitoring for exhaustion signals ahead.
• Bullish Momentum Standouts (Price above 15DMA):
  • SOVRENINS, AUSTINLAZ: On bullish crossovers, but with moderate RSI–likely early in bullish phase rather than exhausted rallies.
  • INTBREW, FIRSTHOLDCO: Price closing above 15DMA, steady PE/EPS metrics, suggest rotational interest into selected banks and brewers.
• Bearish Momentum Standouts (Below 15DMA):
  • GUINEAINS, CORNERST, ROYALEX: Synchronized appearance in YTD losers, daily losers, and bearish momentum signals. Breakdown from 15DMA, with bearish crossover and neutral RSI, hints at further downside risk or sector malaise (insurance sector notably weak).
  • LEGENDINT, MERVALUE: Persistent in both daily and YTD losers, with technical breakdowns and volume spikes warning of capitulation or forced exits.
• MACD vs. RSI Divergence:
  • MERVALUE ETF: Strong negative MACD but RSI above 54 – signals more room for downside collapsing, beware falling knives.

Contrarian Signals: Conflicting Indicators

• CHELLARAM: RSI is moderate at 59.93 (not overbought), MACD is strongly bullish, yet YTD move is +294.59%. With no exhaustion—contrarians might watch for cracks, but trends persist until broken.
• AUSTINLAZ: Up 9.67% today, bullish momentum and 15DMA cross, but no EPS/PE, and modest Beta. Possible short-term rally but worth monitoring for pullback.
• GUINEAINS & CORNERSTONE: Appear bearish, yet RSI remains mid-50s, suggesting further adjustment is possible before oversold lows are reached.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix — Defensive Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ARADEL: 1.28% of institutional volume, 27.55% of institutional trade value, and repeated presence in all activity and gainer tables. Heightened institutional buying, strong conviction—ride the trend or consider for further research.
• ZENITHBANK: 0.83% volume, 2.24% of institutional trade value. Despite modest price changes, persistent institutional flow implies high conviction holders.

Top 5 YTD Gainers and Losers (YTD, Wednesday Special)

Market Activity & Trader Dynamics

• Institutional dominance: 86% of volume and 93% of value—institutions are the price setters for today. Retail made more deals, but average value per trade was tiny in comparison.
• Top Institutional Trades (by Value & Volume):
  • ARADEL (strongest institutional clustering, price surge, unusual volume, multiple table overlap).
  • UBA, ZENITHBANK, PZ, ACCESSCORP: All are high on both institutional and retail lists—suggesting these remain the "session generals”. However, banking stocks saw mixed price direction, showing that liquidity alone isn’t guaranteeing upside—milestone for caution.
• Retail Top Trades:
  • UBA, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO: Retail channels are heavily focused on banking and MTNN. Patterns reveal retail traders may be late to profit-taking moves; smart traders should cross-reference volume changes and moving average trends before following the crowd.
• Hidden correlation: Stocks with overlapping high institutional volume, unusual volume, presence in gainers, AND bullish momentum tables (e.g., ARADEL) are the best high-conviction ideas for momentum traders, but do demand strict risk management.

Suggestions for Traders & Investors

• Momentum chasers: Stick with top-gainers/repeat leaders like CHELLARAM, ARADEL, and watch for an exhaustion gap (ideally RSI > 70, which hasn’t arrived yet).
• Contrarians: Stocks in major downtrends with neutral RSI (GUINEAINS, CORNERSTONE) might still drift lower before any bottom forms. Avoid catching falling knives until RSI dips below 30 or major reversal candles form.
• Income seekers: Focus on LINKASSURE, SOVRENINS for higher-than-market dividend yields, but note their beta and sector exposure; use bullish cross confirmation for entry.
• Risk & sector rotators: Insurance and ETFs remain weak; Oil/Gas and select Banks are the sweet spots for rotational flows. Pay attention to sector heatmaps for clues on next leadership waves.
• Volume-driven strategies: Watch for situations like FIDELITYBK, ABBEYBDS where a volume explosion could signal new base formation or potential breakouts.
• Institutions matter: Stocks with clustering institutional activity (ARADEL, UBA, ZENITHBANK) could see more stable price paths. However, beware sudden reversals if institutional sentiment flips.

Currency Corner

• Naira appreciated +0.11% against the Dollar, closing at ?1,499/USD. Improved FX stability historically bodes well for banking and consumer-facing sectors.

Final Takeaway

Despite strong index gains and institutional appetite, underlying market breadth is weak, with risk-off tones in Insurance and selective profit-taking. Momentum remains king for now (ARADEL, CHELLARAM), but keep stops tight as volatility and divergence between winners and losers is rising. Institutional clustering and unusual volume should be prioritized; overlapping leadership across several tables signals conviction stocks for short-term plays. Monitor sector flows and moving average crossovers for rotational leadership, and trade the trend—until it bends!